2020, the Year of the Rat, began with rather disturbing news about the spread of a new virus known as the 2019 novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV. It first emerged in Wuhan, a city in central China’s Hubei Province in December 2019, but spread in an alarming speed, affecting a total of 28 countries as of 9 February 2020. By February 9, the virus infected 37,606 people and caused 814 deaths around the globe. Even in Singapore, 45 people have been infected, and over half of the people were infected locally.Earlier on January 30 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHIEC)” and called for global solidarity and cooperation to control the virus. The novel coronavirus is the 6th public health emergency of international concern the WHO has ever declared. Previous cases include the swine flu in 2009, polio and Ebola in 2014, Zika virus in 2016, and Ebola in 2019.
Students at UWCSEA have also been following the guidance of the Singapore government in dealing with the recent outbreak. The College has asked students and staff who have travelled to China since January 14 or had family members or friends staying in their household from Hubei Province on a 14-day leave of absence. Also, all trips for students have been cancelled until the start of the next academic year in August 2020 as well as all large-scale on-campus events, including the Community Fair and the Family Festival.
As the situation is still evolving, we cannot estimate when this epidemic will be fully contained. We must be mindful of the developments and carefully observe how the situation may further affect our community. What’s more, the scientists do not have full information about the new virus.
Here is what we do know about the novel coronavirus. First, we know that coronaviruses cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to pneumonia. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) also belong to the same family of viruses. Second, we know that coronaviruses originate in wild animals, which have at times transmitted to humans. Bats are known to carry coronaviruses, but the viruses are not passed directly to people. For instance, scientists say SARS have gone from bats to raccoon dogs or palm civets before reaching humans. They also say MERS jumped from bats to camels before transmitting to people. As of now, we do not know how the current novel coronavirus has been transmitted, although some suggest that snakes may have passed the virus to humans. Third, available evidence suggests that it is transmitted mostly via droplets such as through coughing and sneezing, and based on the assessment of WHO, the main driver of transmission is symptomatic cases. However, asymptomatic infections have occurred, such as a cluster of cases in Germany, but fortunately more studies are being conducted to understand its mechanism.
There is a lot more we have yet to confirm. First, we do not know how infectious the virus is. Scientists define a virus’s potential infectivity by its reproduction number called R0. The number describes how many each sick person will spread the virus to if no one is immune in the population. SARS has R0 of 2.0 to 4.0, which means that each infected person has the potential to pass it on to two to four other individuals. As of now, the rate of human-to-human transmission appears to be higher than that of SARS, but more studies are needed as the total number of infections is increasing daily. Second, because the situation is still evolving, we do not know how deadly the novel coronavirus is. On February 4, the National Health Commission of China stated that as of February 3, the national mortality rate is 2.1%. Earlier on January 29, the World Health Organization also mentioned that the estimated mortality rate is 2%, while it acknowledging that it is too early to make any conclusive statements about the overall mortality rate. These figures will need to be reexamined as more cases are detected and more data is collected.
With these pieces of information in mind, we can determine our course of action. Many who live in regions with a high number of infected people are concerned about the risk of infection and take extensive measures in protecting themselves. On the other hand, others discard the idea of themselves being infected and continue their everyday lives without any concern. The problem with the former approach is that it causes unnecessary chaos and confusion in the society which can lead to the shortage of water and masks, as well as an economic recession. The latter approach only encourages the spread of the virus, most likely leading to more casualties. As such, the balance between caution and awareness of the actual level of threat that the Coronavirus poses is crucial in minimizing the damage done to our society.
However, this is easier said than done. Since the Coronavirus spreads even when the patient has no visible symptoms, wearing masks when one starts to cough will not stop the spread, and wearing masks all the time with this in mind will again be an overreaction and an unnecessary waste of valuable resources. Therefore, while individuals do have the responsibility to evaluate their own condition and work toward preventing the spread of the infection, it is eventually the government that has the capability to contain the spread. There is much criticism about the initial response of the Chineses government and that a more transparent and swift action may have reduced the risk of such a widespread outbreak. The response of the Singapore government, on the other hand, has been quick and thorough, although it is still short of containing the virus as of this moment.
What we can do as individuals in our respective societies is obviously to be cautious, but it is also important for citizens to follow the directions given by the government. Without a large scale, unified movement of entire population, individual effort will have little impact towards the situation, and it is by design that governments set the course of nationwide action at times of crisis. We live in an intricate machine that is society, and the machine can only run smoothly when all of its parts fits perfectly with the other parts.
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